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Cyril Ramaphosa and Vladimir Putin, Russia-Africa Summit, Sochi, Russia, October 2019. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Backed by Russia during the liberation struggle, the African National Congress struggles to find a 'neutral' stance on the Ukraine war

On the scale of economic gains and losses, a quick end to the Russian war on Ukraine would be in South Africa's, and much of Africa's best interest. If that fails to materialise, South Africa will come under growing pressure to take a clearer position.


The junta runs out of bread and road

Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Pic: Romain Gaillard/ Abaca Press / Alamy

General Hemeti's trip to Moscow seems to have produced little more than a spate of reports about Khartoum's gold smuggling

Spiralling wheat prices and the crashing Sudanese pound are firing up still more determined protests against the military regime, testing the unity of the junta's component parts, ...

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Tshisekedi helps Gertler in fight with US

Dan Gertler. Pic: @Presidence_RDC

An accord with Kinshasa allows the sanctioned businessman to control cash from what Washington officials label as 'opaque and corrupt' deals

In a dramatic about-turn, President Félix Tshisekedi is offering to help one of his predecessor's closest business allies currently under United States sanctions for obtaini...


Chief Justice Zondo takes centre stage

Chief Justice Raymond Zondo. Pic GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Rejecting the advice of the Judicial Services Commission, Ramaphosa has picked his own man as top judge as well as top corruption-buster

In appointing Acting Chief Justice Raymond Zondo as the new Chief Justice, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his constitutional powers to trump a populist cabal in the 23-person Judic...


Danger looms for the UN in Mali

Minusma medal ceremony, January 2017.

The future of the UN peacekeeping mission is in question – European troops are leaving and evidence is emerging of abuses by the national army and Wagner

A cloud of anxiety hangs over the leaders of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali as they navigate a hostile military government, tumultuous developments in the Sahel and the geopol...


Abreeze Bear Baby Round Play Pad Crawling Mat Crawl Cushion Air-

Raila Odinga. Pic: Thomas Mukoya / Reuters / Alamy

Overseas trips by the two leading presidential contenders have done little to calm foreign nerves about prospects for the August elections

Kenyans have been given a short break from the day-to-day drama of election rallies and media debates as presidential candidates Deputy President 1822 Denim Women#39;s Petite 26#34; Butter Ankle Skinny Black and ex-Prime Minister...


Brussels eyes African energy as it bars Moscow

Pic: tomas / stock.adobe.com

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Pledge to wean the EU from Russia's gas by 2030 will mean changing policy and stepping up investment in Africa

The launch of the European Union's master plan for energy on 9 March was delayed for a week as the war raging in Ukraine forced officials to rethink their goals. Initially, Brusse...


Pragmatism rules as African states navigate Cold War II

Sergiy Kyslytsya, Permanent Representative of Ukraine UN, addresses the Security Council, March 2022. Pic: UN Photo/Evan Schneider

Moscow's clash with the west benefits authoritarians but economic mayhem could trigger a wave of mass protests

Beyond the sweeping international criticism in the UN and other fora of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, African officials fear their region will suffer most from the economic blight ...


UN clashes with Wagner worsen

Mankeur Ndiaye and Sergei Lavrov, Moscow, April 2017. Pic: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters / Alamy

Moscow's surrogates are undermining the international peacekeepers but diplomats hope a new UN mission chief can stabilise the operation

The Russian-inspired detention of four French soldiers in February at Bangui airport, and the imminent departure of Mankeur Ndiaye, the Senegalese head of the UN's mission to Centr...


President Tshisekedi cuts a deal with Dan Gertler

Pic: @Presidence_RDC

A pact to take back tainted mining assets could be part of wider damage-limitation by a notorious fixer and his partners

A multi-billion dollar corruption scandal over some of the world's most prized copper and cobalt mines is heading towards dénouement, after Congolese authorities signed what...


Unmanned by drones

Turkish Bayraktar combat drone. Pic: Mike Mareen / stock.adobe.com

The vulnerability of expensive armour and military aircraft to Turkey's Bayraktar drones and cheap anti-tank missiles in the Ukraine conflict is causing a drastic rethink in the Al...


Barrick in the dock

Pic: barrick.com

A group of seven Tanzanians will have their day in the High Court in London on 17 March when subsidiaries of Canada-based Barrick Gold face allegations of unlawful killings and ass...


A bigger piece of the potash

Pic: antpkr / stock.adobe.com

Russia's 40% market share in global production and export of potash fertiliser is threatened after the west imposed sanctions on Moscow and Belarus. Sanctions by the United States ...


Not by bread alone

Pic: Alekss / stock.adobe.com

African states are among those hit hardest by spiralling prices and the supply chain disruption to wheat shipments following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and swingeing western sanc...


Alliances come under heavy fire

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

Governments across Africa are reviewing ties with Moscow as the international crisis over its Ukraine invasion deepens

Africa is not directly concerned by the Russia-Ukraine war, yet the African Union and a few member states have made their views known loudly, in contrast with their sotto voce resp...

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How Putin revived Moscow's reach

Group photo, Russia-Africa Summit, Sochi, Russia, October 2019. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Gas pipelines, mining deals and military business powered post-Cold War relations but now they are at a turning point again

President Vladimir Putin's first visit to Africa in 2006 launched Moscow's renewed push for economic and security ties with the continent. Its success was celebrated at the October...


Moscow invasion strains bilateral ties

Cyril Ramaphosa and Naledi Pandor participate in virtual 12th BRICS summit. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Internal rivalries in the ruling ANC complicate the government’s response to war in Ukraine

Russia's full-blown war against Ukraine has opened a crack in the BRICS alliance – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the political and economic grouping t...


Schisms in the junta are widening

Abdel Fattah al Burhan, Sochi, Russia, October 2019. Pic: Mikhail Metzel/ITAR-TASS/Alamy

General Burhan's alliance with a powerful militia and rebels is unravelling as he faces coup plots and street protests

After seizing total power, the ruling generals are facing an increasingly determined and resourceful civilian opposition and are struggling to keep rival armed factions on-side as ...


Formidable first lady flexes her muscles

Pic: @FirstLadyBio

Her critics in the ruling party accuse Fatima Bio of plotting to push out Vice-President Jalloh. That could cost votes in next year's elections

To some, First Lady Fatima Bio is a strong, astute politician in her own right, but to others a bully who may have overstepped her bounds in the party and State House and has her e...


Terrorisme sans frontières

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

The relocation of European troops from Mali to Niger holds political risks for President Bazoum but may avert a wider security breakdown

Geography helps explain why President Mohamed Bazoum overcame his initial reluctance to host European and French troops after they were expelled from Mali this month. Bazoum unders...


Spymaster's arrest heralds purge

Felix Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila, Palais de la Nation, Kinshasa, 24 January 2019. Pic: Olivia Acland /Reuters / Alamy

President Tshisekedi's move against his intelligence chief François Beya was about consolidating power, not thwarting a coup plot


Prime minister Abiy tests diplomatic path

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: Tiksa Negeri / Reuters / Alamy

As Addis Ababa counts the costs of the war, parliament lifts the state of emergency then sets up a National Dialogue Commission